EEA Technical report
No 9/2007
Land-use scenarios for Europe: qualitative and quantitative analysis on a European scale
European Environment Agency
EEA Technical report
No 9/2007
Land-use scenarios for Europe: qualitative and quantitative analysis on a European scale
European Environment Agency
The content of this report derives from the PRELUDE project (PRospective environmental analysis of
land-use development in Europe) of the European Environment Agency and information that was
generated during several PRELUDE outreach events undertaken in late 2005, 2006 and early 2007. Over
50 people, including various experts, stakeholders, modellers and communication and facilitations
professionals, both outside and inside the Agency, have contributed to the development of this project
and its several products.
Contents
Acknowledgements
Acronyms
1 Landscapes to the living: which way to the future?
2 Methodological framework
2.1 Background: building compelling scenarios
2.2 The story-and-simulation approach in PRELUDE
2.3 PRELUDE scenario logics
2.4 The Louvain-la-Neuve model
2.5 Model input
2.6 Model output
3 The PRELUDE scenarios
3.1 The base-year situation
3.2 Great Escape - Europe of contrast
3.3 Evolved Society - Europe of harmony
3.4 Clustered Networks - Europe of structure
3.5 Lettuce Surprise U - Europe of innovation
3.6 Big Crisis - Europe of cohesion
4 Land-use change and environment
4.1 Land-use/land cover changes
4.2 Landscape type changes
4.3 A scan of potential environmental consequences
5 Lessons from participatory land-use scenario development and outreach action on a European scale
6 References
7 Annex
7.1 Scenario storylines (included in the PRELUDE presentation tool)
7.2 Description of driving forces and their relation to model input parameter and spatial allocation rules
CD melléklet
Címszavazva - GE
